Q1 2026 saw continued firmness in East African Arabica coffee benchmark pricing, supported by constrained supply from key Ethiopian growing regions and sustained demand from European and North American specialty buyers. Kenyan AA grades maintained their premium positioning, with auction prices reflecting the ongoing quality reputation of Kenyan origin material.
Tanzanian and Ugandan Robusta continued to attract competitive inquiry from Asian buyers, with Vietnam-origin price dynamics providing a favourable comparative backdrop for East African material in that market segment.
Sesame seed markets experienced seasonal supply pattern normalization following the elevated pricing of late 2025, with Ethiopian and Tanzanian origin material returning to more predictable premium-to-discount relationships versus their key regional comparators.
On the infrastructure front, the SGR Phase 2B update confirmed Kisumu as the next operational terminus, with implications for Northern Corridor routing economics for western Kenya and eastern Uganda commodity flows. Progress on the Tanzania standard-gauge rail link continued, though revised commissioning timelines pushed anticipated operational benefits into 2027.
The commercial credit environment showed mixed signals: dollar liquidity conditions tightened modestly for some regional trade finance providers, while development finance institution appetite for East African agricultural trade finance remained broadly constructive.
Our outlook for Q2 2026 incorporates expectations of continued commodity price support, ongoing logistics infrastructure improvement, and a policy environment broadly supportive of East African agricultural export competitiveness. Specific commodity and corridor intelligence is available to Atlas commercial partners on request.
